As we approach the end of the year, Polymarket has opened up its prediction markets for 2025, allowing traders to place bets on events that will unfold in the upcoming year. The platform has seen a shift in focus from the 2024 Elections to sports betting, with the 2025 NFL Draft taking the lead with $465,998 in bets. Traders are closely monitoring quarterback prospects and scouting developments, making it the most active market on the platform.
While sports betting is dominating the prediction markets for 2025, other categories have seen a decrease in volume. The Bitcoin price outlook market, for example, has only drawn $28,640 in bets. The odds of Bitcoin reaching $120,000 are at 70%, while the odds of it dropping to $70,000 are at 55%. With Bitcoin currently sitting at around $94,000, the likelihood of it surpassing $100,000 in the next year is at 94%.
Traders are also placing bets on 2025 Federal Reserve actions, with $27,507 in wagers. The market predicts an 11% chance of zero rate cuts, 19% chance of a single 25 basis-point cut, and 29% chance of two cuts. There is also a contract gauging the likelihood of a rate hike, currently at 15%. These figures reflect varying views on potential policy shifts under the new administration.
Geopolitical events are also a focus for traders, with bets on whether Vladimir Putin will exit the presidency by 2025 (13% chance) and the likelihood of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire (71% chance). In the Middle East, there are bets on a Netanyahu exit (27% chance) and Iran’s Supreme Leader stepping down (44% chance). There is also a market for the possibility of a nuclear weapon detonation by 2025, with a 22% chance.
Corporate events are also being wagered on, with bets on which company will hold the largest market capitalization in 2025. NVIDIA is at 26% and Apple at 36%. In stablecoin markets, there are contracts on Tether’s potential depegging (16% chance) and insolvency (11% chance).
Although sports betting remains a dominant segment on Polymarket, the platform’s diverse range of prediction markets reflects a broad interest in how leadership changes, monetary policy adjustments, and security concerns may unfold in 2025. With a mix of sports, geopolitical events, and financial markets, Polymarket offers a unique platform for traders to engage in predictive betting for the upcoming year.