Bitcoin’s fourth halving saw the crypto asset reach a peak of $73,794 on March 14, according to Bitstamp records. The hashprice, representing the estimated daily earnings for 1 petahash per second (PH/s), fluctuated between $105 and $125 per PH/s from March 10 to April 10. Fast forward to the present, with BTC hovering between $68.5K and $61.2K, the hashprice has been oscillating between $47.88 and $53 per PH/s. To surpass the $100 per PH/s mark, BTC’s spot price would need to climb into the triple-digit range, considering the impact of the halving and increased mining difficulty.
Recent data reveals that bitcoin miners are experiencing a boost in revenue compared to previous months, especially in August when the hashprice hit an all-time low. The hashprice indicates the estimated daily earnings for each PH/s of mining power, which dropped below $37 per PH/s in August but has since risen to $47.88 as of Oct. 20. However, following the latest halving, where miner rewards were cut in half, miners now require a significantly higher BTC value to return to hashprices above $100 per PH/s.
Assuming no changes in mining difficulty, transaction fees, or mining efficiency, BTC’s price would need to range between $135,500 and $171,000 to restore hashprices to the $105-$125 range—an increase of 97.81% to 149.63% from the current zone. However, these variables are subject to change. Mining difficulty has already increased by 4.12% this month, with another projected increase on Oct. 22. Onchain fees also tend to fluctuate alongside BTC’s price movements, potentially reaching new highs in the $80,000 to $90,000 range.
Mining efficiency continues to improve, with leading manufacturers like Bitmain, Microbt, Auradine, and Canaan releasing models that offer higher TH/s efficiency. For instance, Bitmain’s Antminer U3S21EXPH boasts an impressive 860 TH/s, significantly impacting BTC’s overall hashprice as spot prices fluctuate. Prices between $85,000 and $100,000 would provide miners with a more comfortable position amid changing market conditions.
Adapting to evolving rewards and metrics like onchain fees is essential for miners to optimize operations and stay ahead in the ever-changing crypto economy. Success in mining now depends on resilience, strategic adaptation, and embracing technological advancements while navigating market uncertainties. A steady increase in prices remains advantageous for bitcoin miners as they strive to remain competitive in the evolving landscape.